Latin America Research: 2019 Outlook – Macro & Property Trends
Latin America’s leading economies of Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile continue to benefit from a convergence of long-term demographic, economic and political trends that are expected to support sustainable growth over the next several years. These positive long-term trends include attractive demographics, a growing middle-class, greater mortgage availability and large housing deficits, all factors which should continue to result in resilient demand for housing and the development of other real estate products. Political risk has receded in the region as newly elected market-friendly leaders prevail in Brazil, Colombia and Peru; some uncertainty remains in Mexico with questionable initial policies of its new President. Brazil’s economic and political outlook improved sharply in 2018 with the election of a pro-business President, who is already pursing a reform agenda. GDP is expected to grow in the 2%+ range in 2019 and beyond. Mexico and the three leading countries of the Andean region (Colombia, Peru and Chile) are each poised to grow 2-4% in 2019 and beyond, with economies increasingly driven by domestic consumption and intraregional trade. In Mexico, while the conclusion of NAFTA renegotiations in 2018 removed some uncertainty, the new President’s early actions have given mixed messages at best and Paladin remains cautious on Mexico until the new President’s policies become more clear and constructive.