September 7, 2023
Top 5 Reasons Why SoCal Workforce Housing Will Outperform Other Strategies
Here’s our “Top 5 List” of reasons why SoCal workforce rental apartments will likely outperform other strategies over the next 2-3 years, offering investors an asymmetrical risk-reward proposition that is truly unique compared to other U.S. markets and product types.
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1. Cycle-Resilient Demand
Southern California is one of the largest and most supply-constrained housing markets in the U.S. Less than half of Angelenos can afford to buy a home. As a result, Class B/C apartments provide an essential need – affordable workforce housing – to a large permanent renter class of “renters by necessity.” Because of this and their superior rent advantage compared to newer product, Class B/C apartments in Southern California typically stay fully leased during good times and bad, averaging 97% over the past 20 years.
2. High Barriers to Entry Limiting New Supply
Despite the best policy intentions, building new affordable housing in Southern California has proven to be an insurmountable challenge for decades due to the region’s lack of developable land, high cost of construction and other barriers. It will take Los Angeles 20 years to meet its existing housing deficit based on the current pace of development. Government-subsidized new affordable housing costs over $750,000 per unit, more than 2x the typical cost to renovate and reposition an existing Class B/C apartment building.
3. Irreplaceable Assets with Huge Cost and Rent Advantage
Most of the rental housing in greater Los Angeles was built after World War II when land was relatively cheap and plentiful. As a result, the existing infill rental housing stock is mostly comprised of older, smaller Class B/C apartment buildings, typically under 50 units. Such low-density apartments would not be economically feasible to develop today, and yet they can be acquired at substantial discounts to replacement cost (50% or more) based on current income that is 20-30% below market. As a result, Class B/C apartments enjoy a sizable rent advantage compared to newer Class A product (36% discount or more).
4. Lack of Institutional Competition
The region’s smaller asset sizes also make it challenging for most large institutional investors to achieve desired portfolio scale, as they’d need to acquire 5-10x as many assets in Los Angeles to achieve the same scale as one 200 to 300-unit property in markets like Phoenix, Dallas or Atlanta where institutional ownership is more widespread. As a result, the SoCal market is largely dominated by smaller unsophisticated “mom and pop” investors.
5. Abundance of Value-Added Opportunities
The typical “mom and pop” owner that dominates the SoCal apartment market has very different motivations than institutional investors. Most lack the experience, resources or desire to optimize the full market potential of these older assets. As a result, the SoCal urban landscape is filled with thousands of rundown Class B/C apartment buildings that are significantly under-performing their potential, with current rents 20-30% or more below market. This “loss to lease” is further amplified by the region’s complex rent control regulations, which artificially restrict the supply of residential units available for lease. Sophisticated investors who know how to capture that “loss to lease” through value-added business plans can be richly rewarded.
Conclusion – An Asymmetrical Risk-Reward Opportunity
The 5 unique benefits of the SoCal apartment market described above offer a compelling market opportunity to acquire, renovate and reposition older Class B/C apartments. For experienced institutional investors like Paladin, who have the skill, capital and ability to navigate the region’s complex rent control regulations and capture higher market rents through value-added business plans, the upside potential can be very attractive.
Indeed, every $1 of NOI growth in a ±5% cap rate market like Southern California generates $20 of incremental value. Further, by focusing on properties regulated under California’s statewide rent control (AB1482), such investments have strong inflation protection and a clear pathway to generate desired unit turnover to capture higher market rents.
Most importantly, the favorable supply-demand fundamentals described above are structurally imbedded in, and unique to, the Southern California apartment market. As a result, a conservatively-capitalized value-added strategy focused on workforce rental housing here is much less reliant on market timing and, therefore, is relatively well-insulated from supply side risks and economic downturns that can have a much greater impact on other U.S. markets.
Paladin believes this unique combination of (1) strong downside protection and (2) attractive upside potential in a relatively lower cap rate market results in an asymmetrical risk-reward proposition that is difficult to replicate in most other U.S. markets and strategies.
That’s a welcome investment outcome in these uncertain times.
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